Methodology

Intelligence you can check, not intelligence you have to trust.

Each edition checks every tracked bill's status against the state's own record, through a stated cutoff, and each substantive item carries its source and read date. Where a report makes a judgment, it says how firm the judgment is. Rob Shrum answers for all of it. This page describes how that works, because a standard nobody can inspect is a slogan.

Verified, not aggregated

What verified actually means.

A verified status means the state's own official record was read for that bill, and the status matches it. Every edition states its source cutoff and the records it read, and each substantive item names the record it came from and the date it was read.

The discipline is deliberately strict about the calls that matter. A bill is not called enacted until the state's own record confirms it became law. Passage of both chambers is not enactment. A bill is not called dead until the state's record shows it is terminal. Where the record is ambiguous, the ambiguity is flagged rather than resolved by guessing.

Enacted bills carry the enactment date and the official citation once confirmed against the state's record. Where enactment is confirmed and the citation is not yet, the report says citation pending rather than leaving a blank or inventing one.

Likelihood

Likelihood is stated in words, with the event and the window named.

A forward read names the event it expects and the period it covers, then says how likely that is, in words from one scale, never as a bare number. A call built on a sponsor's stated plans reads differently from one built on pattern, and the report says which. Where there is no basis for a call, the report says so rather than guessing.

A likelihood is a living assessment. A call is revised when new evidence changes the expected event, its likelihood, its timing or where you should focus, and the revision is dated. In the daily edition, forward-looking items sit in their own section, labeled as predictions and kept apart from bill status.

Influence mapping

Four confidence levels, and what each one supports.

Influence Mapper reports map who is working on an issue. Every entry is a claim, and every claim carries a confidence level, its source and the date it was captured. The level shows what is established, what needs qualifying, and what still needs checking, and it travels with the claim wherever the report goes. Confidence is not clearance to publish; your team and counsel decide external use.

Deterministic

The record is its own source. A filing exists, a registration was made, a vote was recorded. Nothing to interpret.

Cite it directly
Documented

A citable public artifact establishes it directly: a filing, a roster, a transcript, an attributable statement.

Cite it directly
Assessed

Several sources support it, but none states it outright. A working conclusion drawn from evidence.

Describe as an assessment
Inferred

A pattern suggests it and it is not established. Shown with its reasoning.

A line of inquiry, never a claim
Terms

The same words mean the same things everywhere.

The words in your reports mean the same thing every time, so a term never quietly shifts meaning from one morning to the next.

Verified The state's official record was read for this bill and the status matches it. Each edition names the records read and the date.
Source cutoff The time through which state records and Governor actions were read for that morning's edition.
Enacted Used only with a confirmed signature or chapter number. Passage of both chambers is not enactment.
Dead Used only when the state's record shows the bill is terminal.
Look ahead Forward-looking signals for next session. Labeled as predictions and kept apart from bill status.
Candidates New bills screened before each edition: recommended for your tracker, or held for your call. Nothing is added without your agreement.
Tracked Every bill in your agreed scope is watched and listed in your tracker.
When it cannot wait If a development will not keep until the next morning's edition, Rob emails you directly.
Reports Read by Rob Shrum and sent by him. Drafts are never shown to clients.
Limits

What the work does not claim.

Where we do not know, the report says so rather than manufacturing certainty. Calibrated uncertainty is a feature, not a hedge, and the limits are stated because work that claims everything is work you cannot rely on.

A likelihood is not a guarantee. It does not account for a veto calculus, a leadership change, or a preemption ruling unless the report says so.
Coverage is bounded and stated: your issues, in your states. Within that scope, the commitment is completeness. Outside it, no claim is made.
Influence mapping covers organizations, funders, registered advocates, and individuals acting in a public or professional capacity. It does not profile private individuals.
No completeness claim on influence mapping. Absence from a report is not evidence that a relationship does not exist.
No claim about motive or intent. Association and its evidence only.
Confidence is not clearance to publish. Your team and counsel decide external use.
Accuracy is measured against what actually happened, with misses recorded alongside hits. No accuracy figure is claimed before that record exists.
If an error is found, you hear about it directly, the same day, never silently.

Check the work.

If something here looks wrong, say so. A disputed status is a useful signal and checking it costs little. Tell Rob your issues and states, and he will show you what this looks like against your own landscape.

Talk with Rob